National Cancer Institute Home at the National Institutes of Health | www.cancer.gov
Please wait while this form is being loaded....
The Applied Research Program Web site is no longer maintained. ARP's former staff have moved to the new Healthcare Delivery Research Program, the Behavioral Research Program, or the Epidemiology & Genetics Research Program, and the content from this Web site is being moved to one of those sites as appropriate. Please update your links and bookmarks!

Publication Abstract

Authors: Mendez D, Warner KE

Title: Smoking prevalence in 2010: why the healthy people goal is unattainable.

Journal: Am J Public Health 90(3):401-3

Date: 2000 Mar

Abstract: OBJECTIVES: This study examined the changes in smoking initiation and cessation needed to realize the Healthy People 2010 national adult smoking prevalence objective (13%). METHODS: Using data from the National Health Interview Surveys, we calculated smoking prevalence over time with a dynamic population demographics model, examining the effects of changes in smoking initiation and cessation. RESULTS: The draft objective is unattainable solely through decreases in smoking initiation. It could be achieved through smoking cessation alone only if cessation rates immediately increased by a factor of more than 3.5. Assuming plausible decreases in initiation and increases in cessation, the draft objective is virtually unattainable. CONCLUSIONS: The health objectives should challenge the status quo but be achievable. Formal analysis often can assist in establishing reasonable objectives.

Last Modified: 03 Sep 2013