National Cancer Institute Home at the National Institutes of Health |
Please wait while this form is being loaded....
The Applied Research Program Web site is no longer maintained. ARP's former staff have moved to the new Healthcare Delivery Research Program, the Behavioral Research Program, or the Epidemiology & Genomics Research Program, and the content from this Web site is being moved to one of those sites as appropriate. Please update your links and bookmarks!

Publication Abstract

Authors: Hanin LG, Miller A, Zorin AV, Yakovlev AY

Title: The University of Rochester model of breast cancer detection and survival.

Journal: J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr (36):66-78

Date: 2006

Abstract: This paper presents a biologically motivated model of breast cancer development and detection allowing for arbitrary screening schedules and the effects of clinical covariates recorded at the time of diagnosis on posttreatment survival. Biologically meaningful parameters of the model are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood from the data on age and tumor size at detection that resulted from two randomized trials known as the Canadian National Breast Screening Studies. When properly calibrated, the model provides a good description of the U.S. national trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality. The model was validated by predicting some quantitative characteristics obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. In particular, the model provides an excellent prediction of the size-specific age-adjusted incidence of invasive breast cancer as a function of calendar time for 1975-1999. Predictive properties of the model are also illustrated with an application to the dynamics of age-specific incidence and stage-specific age-adjusted incidence over 1975-1999.

Last Modified: 03 Sep 2013